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postdiction

Brian Miller writes: Postdiction is an explanation after the event: the lamest and laziest form of prophecy.

In skepticism, it is considered an effect of hindsight-bias that (only afterwards) explains claimed predictions of significant events.

Happens often at race-tracks and masked wine tastings.

Larry Lockshin adds: "I knew it." Used extensively in business case studies, which often purport to cause and effect: they did this, and that happened.

It is not a predictor of outcomes for those following the claims.

A typical postdiction might be:

It was after I switched from Corn Flakes to Rice Krispies that women started to notice me. You should try Rice Krispies. They could work for you too...

by jethro probes April 16, 2016