usual suspect

An individual of a particular demographic who is most likely to have committed certain crimes or to display certain negative behaviors, typically based on statistical per capita from that demographic.

Jane: Did you hear there was another terrorist attack earlier today? Over ten people were killed by a car driving through a crowd!
John: That's awful! Who did it? Was it the usual suspect?
Jane: Reports say the perpetrator was a Syrian national, of course it's the usual suspect.

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